TST NEWSLETTER – 9/05/2021
Dust It Off – USA Lacks Labour Work Force Numbers
Topics:
- Dust It Off – USA Lacks Labour Work Force Numbers
- Last Week In The Forex Markets
- Top 3 Pairs For Next Week
- TST Affiliate Program
Dust It Off – USA Lacks Labour Work Force Numbers
With the world starting to stabilize after what was an unexpected turn of events, we are starting to see many economies open their doors back up to the masses.
But unexpectedly America is struggling to fill job positions that require or solely depend on manual labour.
Currently, the US economy is down more than 8 million jobs since the pandemic shocked the world.
The Federal Reserve officials are saying the actual unemployment rate is more likely close to 10% than the previously released 5.8%.
Analysts estimate the US economy has relisted a million jobs this month alone, with no sign of people looking to return to the labour-intensive jobs that need to be filled.
We are seeing work places offer pay rises, better hours, and even bonus's offered to staff who join their pay roll.
Why Is This Happening?
Firstly we should address the fact that many people during the pandemic had taken up other job roles, mostly to make themselves more mobile and flexible during the pandemic, but also out of wanting to find new career paths that they didn't have time to enter before .
We also see lots of people who had the time to think about what they wanted to do with their life, subsequently retraining into other professions. With this being said many job roles need a trained or qualified worker doing the job, which many people in the unemployed pool do not have these assets to work.
Another reason we are seeing this play out is due to there being many benefits currently that the unemployed can obtain via the stimulus bills, in most cases this is better than being employed by a business and risking your health. It could be a case that most people do not want to put themselves in harm's way during a global pandemic, and would rather collect a paycheck while in a comfortable position.
The younger generation is leaving labour jobs or not even contemplating that as an option when they look for work.
They are entering fields like computer engineering, science, technology, and any industries at the forefront of innovation. Is this the beginning of a new age of workers?
We may also be seeing the fact that employers complain that enhanced unemployment benefits and other government aid are keeping workers in the unemployed pool, happy to collect a check rather than work for income. There are currently 16 million Americans still claiming unemployment benefits.
So What Next?
Ultimately we want to see the labour workforce pool increase, and with that, we would want to see Americans return to their qualified industries or take up careers within the sector. However this may not be what we see, we may see other sectors become flooded with new talent and workforces willing to take up positions.
With this being the biggest disruption to the US economy since World War Two, analysts will be monitoring the labour sector with a keen eye to see growth return or a decrease in payroll employment.
Seeing many companies/business are having to increase the minimum wage from $15 to $16/$19 in some cases, there is increased pressure on business owners to get people to work for them.
With that said there is a growing concern that people will get complacent with the increased payroll.
We will have eyes on Joe Biden to see if he has the answers to America's problems, Biden has taken on a detrimental challenge to tackle during his presidency.
Last Week In The Forex Markets
With it being a bank holiday in the UK on Monday we didn't quite see that volume return until the end of the week.
We will be looking for the larger plays heading into next week but let's take a look at the minimal trades we took last week at TST.
USDCHF: [-1%]
USDCHF was looking like a great move headed into the week.
We were looking to take this trade-off the order box in play, this order box looked like it could be the point of interest for us as it created a break of structure.
We can see the market didn't quiet play ball with this set up and left us unfortunately with a -1%.
AUDJPY: [Break Even]
AUDJPY seemed to be the same story this week.
We did see some nice moves on this pair we didn't take anything that wasn't high quality.
Here we where looking to trade the order box at the top of structure.
The double top formed and we pushed away nicely but it was shortly met with a break even.
The importance of using aggressive break evens can save your slow week from being a bad week.
AUDUSD: [Missed]
Here we can see that AUDUSD has been descending in nature.
We simply were looking for the point that the market would push down, gathering enough liquidity to send price to the upside, breaking structure.
We had this trade on our list but unfortunately missed our entry ever so slightly.
Top 3 Pairs For Next Week
GBPUSD: [Long to Short]
Every Saturday we send a 'Market Breakdown' to our Pro Members.
This week we have been looking at this setup on GBPUSD.
Identifying a current trend, we can make the assumption that price will push higher to gather more liquidity (orders), which will, in turn, line us up for a short position, taken from the top of the structure and the order box in play.
We can look to take the short position to the 90% rule.
GBPNZD: [Long]
Another setup we are looking at heading into next week is GBPNZD.
We can see that price has been pushing to the upside since the start of 2021.
Here we are looking to capitalise on the next bullish push. Using a trend line we can now see that price has pushed down breaking the previous structure.
Naturally, we have identified a descending channel, which we are anticipating to line up with the order block that caused a previous break of structure (BOS).
AUDCAD: [Long]
Finally for our outlook for next week, we are looking at AUDCAD.
We have identified a descending wedge, price has broken structure impulsively, as always we will be looking for a pullback to the order block that caused the impulsive break of structure.
We can look to trade this from the top of the order box or use a Fibonacci retracement to give us the 50% extension level to trade from.
The Social Traders Affiliate Programme
Looking a little closer to home, we thought it would be fitting to show you guys our affiliate program we have introduced for The Social Traders Course.
We are giving all affiliates a competitive and fair commission for people they bring into the community.
Family, friends, your girlfriend, or boyfriend? Anyone looking to learn a skill set for life, or potentially a skill set to change their future, then this will allow you to make some extra cash each month for doing what you love and to introduce more people to our ever-growing community.
With consistent updates and new content being made we really want to offer our community the best.
Subscription Commissions
£34.99 Package – 33% recurring for every month the client stays subscribed.
£24.99 Package – 33% recurring for every month the client stays subscribed.
Broker Referrals
£500 Trading Account – £150 – Client must complete at least 15 live trades. Net 30
£1000 Trading Account – £225 – Client must complete at least 15 live trades. Net 30
£3000 Trading Account – £300 – Client must complete at least 15 live trades. Net 30
Want to learn exactly how we trade the markets?
Why not check out our ‘pro package’? You will gain access to our in-depth course as well as many more features – www.thesocialtraders.com
Looking for a reliable broker with raw spread accounts and 1:500 leverage? Try our partnered broker – https://www.axitrader.com/uk/live-account?token=IDUZ-LFrugU5oKniM-HhFmNd7ZgqdRLk&affid=7138
We thank you for reading this week's addition to the TST Newsletter, have a great trading week, and stay consistent. – 'The Social Traders Team'
Written by – Karl Milward