09/10/2021 Breakdown
DYLAN LAVIN
DXY – Scenario 1
Scenario 1 would involve price pushing up from market open from the area we highlighted last week. I would then look for price to push above the high at 94.737 to gather liquidity. We would also have this ascending style pattern into this area too where I would look for a fakeout, retest scenario in order to get involved. This one could become invalid on market open if we do push below these orders.
DXY – Scenario 2
Scenario 2 is my favourite option between the two scenarios. I would be looking for the market to fall lower from these areas into bullish orders that we highlighted a while ago now. I would also be looking to complete the descending channel here too. The 3rd touch lines up perfectly with our orders. We do also have imbalance sat just above our orders giving cause for lower prices. I would then want to see price move above the high again at 94.737 to grab liquidity before any move lower.
EURUSD – Short To Long
As you know were looking at a very high value area here on EURUSD for a longer term move to the upside. And I can see a descending channel that is starting to form. However I feel we may be able to look for short term shorts down into our buy zone. For this to happen we need a corrective move higher into our bearish orders that broke structure to the downside. There is an option for orders slightly higher too (covered in MB) but for me this is the most probable level that fits with the channel. Lets look to correlate this with the DXY before entering.
USDJPY – Short
USDJPY is another pair we have been monitoring for a few weeks now and were yet to see any trigger to take a short positon. We're now sat around the 3rd touch of our ascending structure and also weekly swing high at 112.230 which is a key area that I will be paying close attention too. The ideal scenario would be that the market starts to ascend and correct here forming a channel that we can then look to trade off of. There are definitely a few scenarios we could see here and its all about this last piece of price action. The main this to take not of is the area were in, weekly highs shouldn't be ignored.
NZDJPY – Short
Looking at NZDJPY here on the hourly timeframe I can see clear equal highs that suggest to me that price has cause to move higher and that we have liquidity resting above that the market needs to sweep. I can also see clear orders that broke the lows. We also have a clear ascending channel into this area and the 3rd touch lines up perfectly with our orders.
AUDUSD – Short To Long
AUDUSD has been another pair that has been on our watchlist for quite some time and I still want price to come down into our bullish orders before that longer term buy position. We van see the clear descending channel too and the 3rd touch lines up perfectly to mitigate those orders. However we do have the opportunity for a short position for bearish orders that swept highs and broke lows on the 2H timeframe. I will be monitoring price action back into these orders for short term shorts into our buy zone.
MAX BAKER
USDCHF – Long To Short
USDCHF looking real tasty heading into the new week.
At the moment we're fairly rangebound, price is sat mid range consolidating within a correction. However, if you strip back price for what it is we can clearly see that were are forming a pullback correction to see some more upside. Combine that with the orders left around the 0.92400 level and we have strong case to take this pair to the upside (short to mid term). This would line up with Dylans thesis on the DXY.
Once price hits into the 0.93500 region we can look to flip our bias and trade the longer term short positions that has been on our watchlists for a very long time.
EURJPY – Short
Keeping things really simple on EURJPY.
We have a lot of liquidity sat above the 130.000 level, this would coincide with the 2nd touch of this larger descending channel pattern we are seeing. In terms of entry, because we will be playing the 2nd touch here we will need to see another confluence to get involved. For example, a pattern into this AOI, a reduced risk entry style entry where minor structural lows are broken or just price action that looks really 'heavy in nature'.
Let's not over complicate this and trade the market for what it is. Any pullbacks before the short could potentially be traded long.
EURAUD – Long To Short
EURAUD is boarding on a wildcard for next week but I do really like the setup.
Price action is beginning to fall super corrective, suggesting that the bears are beginning to become exhausted and a short term reversal is on the cards. Is price action ready to trade long just yet? I don't think so, I think we're due some more development in this final piece of price action. Most likely one more drive to the downside, grabbing liquidity before the market turns.
If the short presents itself next week, keep an eye on he 1.61000 region. There is key structure across this region alongside the 3rd touch of this trend to the downside.
EURGBP – Long
EURGBP was right at the top of our watchlist lats week. There was a really nice that happened on Friday (highlighted in Pro Telegram) unfortunately that entry missed our orders by under a pip. However, heading into the new week I do think there may be another opportunity to get into the market.
I'm really interested to see how this last descending channel plays out. I'm expecting another drive to the upside by one final sell to trap liquidity on both side of the markets. Keep and eye on the 0.84600 level.
GBPUSD – Long To Short
Since the push up from the 1.34000 level price has become very corrective and ascending in nature. This means we should be on alert for one final drive lower before the larger move to the upside.
I have drawn out what I believe price will do over the next few weeks. I think we can trade both side of the market here. If price moves to the downside before the push higher I would be looking to trade longs around the 1.35600 level (technically the 3rd touch of the base trendline), this could be a nice 100 pip move to the upside. Once in the 1.36600 region we can look to flip our bias and trade short. I've highlighted two potential ways to trade the short, I would not be surprised if we see a continuation type pullback before any committed move, so don't FOMO if you miss the risk entry at the top of structure.