DXY – Scenario 1
Scenario 1 here on the dollar accounts for one push higher to grab liquidity. We know that we're sat around the 3rd touch of the expanding pattern and its now just about the last bit of development before we can look to get involved. Price action is currently descending which also accounts for a pop higher. Once we have seen this I will then want to see a break in structure to the downside. This will suggest a change in direction and then we can highlight orders and set our limits.
DXY Scenario 2
Scenario 2 focuses on the same area around the 3rd touch of the expanding pattern. If we don't see the right sort of price action based off of scenario 1 we can definitely look for a larger pattern to play out here. If we see an ascending pattern form we can look to enter around the 3rd touch. I will however want to see a LTF entry model or confirmation entry in order to get involved.
EURUSD – Long
Very similarly to the DXY we are sat in a super high value area. We have a daily descending channel and a 4H Expanding pattern heading towards a daily level. Ill be watching for any sort of descending price action into this level as another sign of reversal. Its then just a case of waiting for structure to be broken to the upside to confirm that charge in trend. then we simply need to locate orders to get involved. I cover all the possible scenarios in the market breakdown.
GBPCAD – Long
GBPCAD is definitely a wildcard going into the new week. Looking to the low of the chart we can see a clear sweep of the lows before a break of the highs. This naturally leaves orders behind and thy haven't yet been mitigated. We also have equal lows to the left that suggest price can move lower from where it currently sits. Im now just looking for price to correctively make its way into our orders to look for longs.
NZDUSD – Long
This was a set up that was highlighted ;last week and nothing has really changed, I know we have cause to still move lower into our orders due to the equal low. Similarly to EURUSD im looking at this last piece of price action for some clarity. I want to see clear descending price action and some accumulation. Once we see the right sort of price action that suggests upside its then a case of waiting for structure to be broken to the upside. Wether its a LTF or the same timeframe. Either way I want confirmation in order to get in.
NZDJPY – Long
NZDJPY longs where highlighted last week so well done to those of you that caught it. I do feel there is opportunity to come lower because of NZDUSD. I have highlighted clear orders with imbalance sitting just above. This gives cause for the market to come to this level. I also see a clear descending channel and the 3rd touch lines up perfectly with this level. This looks great going into the week ahead.
EURJPY – Long to Short
EURJPY first on my watchlist this week, super interesting area for this pair.
Let's keep an eye on the 128.200 level. Around here we have the liquidity from a previous double bottom that provides cause for lower prices. Combine this with the pattern we are seeing forming and we have a incredibly high quality setup.
One thing to note is that if price action develops on current levels (128.750) then we could see some more upside. Technically we don't have to come lower. I would look out for the right kind of development and clear signs of a trend reversal.
USDCHF – Short
USDCHF continues to be on our watchlist heading into the new week.
Last week price spiked to the upside (in typical USDCHF fashion) This is a good sign though, we have now grabbed the most extreme level of liquidity and should be on high alert looking for short positions. I'm super interested in the most recent piece of price action; similar to the week prior, I think we are seeing a continuation move to the downside here. If we can complete this pattern It will give us the clarity to search for entries. I'm predicting this to be around the 0.93500 region as that lines up with unmitigated orders on the 30 min timeframe.
Be patient with this one, I would expect spikes and liquidity grabs around the 0.93500 level.
USDCAD – Long to Short
UC is a setup I'm watching closely at market open as I'm expecting this to be ready early in the week.
Price action suggests longer term downside as we're seeing an H&S form with the right shoulder not quite showing the 3 touch structure that we typically like to see. Inside the right shoulder ascending channel you can see that we have a falling wedge type pattern again pointing at more upside for this pair before the committed move lower. If we get LTF dev in the 1.26000 region I would expect price to move to the upside back up into 1.28000, could be an awesome move.
EURGBP – Long
EURGBP didn't quite hit our AOI to take short last week, which is a shame because the move was textbook.
However, Because of this we have left orders behind. These orders need to be mitigated in order to see the market full commit to the downside. For this reason I think next week we will be able to play the short to medium term long position from around the 0.85100 region up to the orders situated around 0.86300.
This entry will below the market
EURCAD – Long
EURCAD looking great as a wildcard for next week. Price is hitting a level of clear orders and support (1.46000) we also have a clear 3 touch structure and lows broken.
Being an exotic and also being quite flat in nature, I would expect some volatility around these levels, which is why it would be great to see a slowdown / falling wedge type pattern into these levels. The slowdown will confirm our bias whilst also giving us more clarity on the region for entry.
In terms of targets I would aim for the highs of the structure before looking to flip our bias and head short.